D-Day Plus One: Draftniks

This year's draft of amateur baseball players came on the 62nd anniversary of D-Day, and for the many denizens of Redlegsville the date of 06-06-06 can be viewed as either early judgment for the new front office or just simple baseball para-science.

Say all we will about the Dan-Oh regime, but it seems it produced two decent drafts. Now, with so much yak about Gen. Krivsky's scouting abilities, the diehards—the real baseball cueballers—were watching each of yesterday's 18 draft selections as if the apocalypse was just over the horizon.

From Reds.com to ESPN.com to Marc Lancaster's oftentimes rudderless blog on Cincypost.com, the draftniks were going insane in the first handful of rounds as the Krivskies drafted a five-tool outfielder (Drew Stubbs, first round), a projected utility infielder (Chris Valaika, third round) and a prep outfielder (Justin Reed, fourth round) who's likely going to play football at Ole Miss.

Where are the pitchers?

"Worst draft in recent Reds history. Period," penned Redsfan on one blog.

"I'm just trying to believe they know what they're doing in some sense," wrote Desmith on another.

"No way around it: In pure philosophy, after the first round this has been an exercise in Redlegs Draftniks Idiotis," wrote Mr. Redlegs on another.

Hey! Wait. That's me.

All of this reactionary, round-by-round yakking was typically premature . . . and likely, brainless, because the Krivskies showed their hand by the end of Day 1. They selected nine pitchers, five infielders and four outfielders—no catchers—owith 15 of the 18 picks being college kids. Seven of the nine pitchers were collegians.

Given the dearth of pitching in the system, this was a sound draft philosophy . . . in theory. Baseball America likes the power arms the Reds selected deeper on Day 1, including Josh Ravin, Jordan Smith, Travis Webb and Josh Roenicke. They project as relievers and that's fine because we have all seen the Whitewashing, Merckerizing and Weatherblown state of the current bullpen.

The Reds need immediate pitching help—live arms that can hit mid-90s on the radar—from the system and going the college route in a very thin talent pool has logic.

For comparison, look at the Day 1 drafts of organizations that have a recent established history of producing pitchers:

Braves, 22 picks, 16 pitchers, 8 high schoolers.
Cardinals, 21 picks, 9 pitchers, 1 high schooler.
Astros, 18 picks, 11 pitchers, 1 high schooler.
White Sox, 17 picks, 8 pitchers, 2 high schoolers.
Diamondbacks, 20 picks, 13 pitchers, 1 high schooler.
Athletics, 17 picks, 10 pitchers, 3 high schoolers.
Indians, 21 picks, 12 pitchers, 3 high schoolers.
Marlins, 20 picks, 7 pitchers, 1 high schooler.

Outside of the Braves, who have a core philosophy of drafting high school pitchers and college position players, most every team leaned toward the colleges for pitching help. This tells us of the immediate need for arms, the lack of depth in this draft, and the hope that at least one college-age pitcher might make it to the big leagues before the end of the 2007 season.

So what the Krivskies have done on Day 1 is actually emphasizing pitching without overlooking a couple of tools players they liked. It hard to argue with the selection of Stubbs, who one scouting report likened to Boston's Trot Nixon but might be closer to a younger version of St. Louis's Jim Edmonds. Baseball America liked the selection of Valaika; but with the Reds being youthful and talented at second base (Brandon Phillips), shortstop (Felipe Lopez) and third base (Edwin Encarnacion), the selection of a projected utility player this high in the draft should not have been taken over several good high school players on the board—namely LHP Zach Britton (Orioles, pick after Valaika) and potential leadoff LF Cedric Hunter (Padres, nine picks after Valaika).

Of course, we ponder and pontificate today because, well, that's what fans and blogs and drafts are for. But all of this draft analyses doesn't mean diddly-poo-squat because about 95 percent of the total draft board—including today's final 32 rounds—never pan out. That's not to say 5 percent will reach the majors; the hope is 5-10 percent actually last in the minors.

What fans of Redlegsville need from this draft is hope, and Gen. Krivsky's history of scouting and his keen eye for major-league players who fit a role have to be respected thus far. We'll need a few years to know how the class of 2006 pans out. But on D-Day Plus One, the overview says the draftniks should drink a few Moerleins and relax.

Judgment day is uh-ways off.