The Rites of Spring Training: Loose Observations
Yeah, yeah, I promised you a look at the bullpen nearly a month ago but as things have played out—with so many non-contenders getting innings in the early games—I decided to wait a while longer to see some roster cuts. So, look for the bullpen analysis soon.
In the meantime, a few random observations not getting a lot of attention from the pack-rat mentality of the beat writers, who are now just as concerned about getting beat on their blogs as they are in print:
1. David Ross is not having a good spring. Normally you don’t worry about such from veterans. But given that he slumped so poorly the last two months of last year, played only 75 games for the season, and has no track of being a frontline starter or being as productive as he was the first four months, should the Reds be concerned about their catching situation?
2. Of all the yapping about Junior Griffey moving to right field, the bigger issue should be about his slot in the batting order. Why is it written in stone that he must bat in the 3-hole? Let’s see: first-ballot HOFer nearing 600 homers on one hand, team without a cleanup hitter on the other? Hmmm. Griffey in the 4-hole would also alleviate a problem of stacking the lefties in the middle and making the Reds prey to situational matchups late in the game. More on this subject in a later post.
3. The manager has used Brandon Phillips in the third slot of the order quite a bit this spring. He should stay there. I saw Phillips in the cage enough last year that he’s one of those guys whose impact on the ball makes you turn around. His outs are often hard and loud, and, with experience and fewer KOs, he has the makings of a good 3-hitter. Having Griffey behind him would get Phillips a lot of pitches to drive and, further, break up the monotony of all the lefties. My order: Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips, Griffey, Encarnacion, Dunn, Ross/Valentin, Gonzalez.
4a. Little, if nothing, has been written about batting coach Brook Jacoby changing EE’s stance and how it’s not working out thus far. Eddie apparently uses the stance in some at-bats and not in others. Most scouts believe he is going to be a major run producer and, frankly, until proven to be broke, why fiddle with his stance?
4b. I still don't know what Bucky Dent actually does but if he's not fixing EE's throwing issues then . . well, what f-ing good is he?
5. Out of the bullpen logjam comes the story of Rule 5 pick Jared Burton. Three weeks ago it was figured he had no shot at making the club. But he’s got some nasty stuff—that slider has some bite—and he doesn’t walk people nor does he give up homers. Obviously the Reds will have to keep him on the 25-man roster, offer him back to the A’s or work out a deal. But, approaching age 26, he’s another hard-throwing reliever (low 90s, heavy top) who might be of some help this year, or down the road. His spring performance is quietly forcing the Reds to keep him. He could be especially useful if Belisle continues to win the No. 5 slot in the rotation.
6. Kirk Saarloos got a lot of early ink and praise but he’s pitching himself into the bullpen and maybe even Lullville because of that ages-old problem of sinkerballers—fish that won’t bite. If you ever wondered why guys such as Jon Garland, Todd Jones and Paul Wilson can be so effective one day and so awful another, it’s because they are sinkerballers and hitters usually figure out very quickly in the game when the sinker is not a strike. The pitcher is then forced to throw something closer to the strike zone. And since most sinkerballers can’t hit 90 on the gun, these other pitches are fat and hittable. It would be one thing if Saarloos was behind in counts or walking batters. But he’s just getting hit. Period.
7. Mark Bellhorn keeps getting playing time and keeps making horrendous mistakes. Why? When the Reds did the right thing by cutting Ligtenberg and Meadows early so they can catch on with other teams, why not Bellhorn? He’s not making the club and this late in the spring he’s taking away at-bats from people the coaching staff really needs to see—namely Denorfia, Hopper and Gil. If the Reds feel they need an extra body for spring games, just pull someone from the minor league camp.
8. No one is talking about the Reds keeping three catchers anymore.
9. Victor Santos has been lights out but somehow he’s not mentioned as a top contender for the No. 5 slot in the rotation. He’s almost like the invisible man on the staff.
10. No one is bitching about Krivsky anymore. There’s more depth on the big league club and at Lullville in some time. Not a bad year’s work.
NEXT: The Bullpen (I promise—sorta)
posted by Mr. Redlegs @ 12:31 AM
5 comments
5 Comments:
The Yankees' ace is a sinkerball pitcher. Of course, Wang's sinker hits 96-97 on the gun...
Why doesn't Griffey bat cleanup? Is he one of those guys who gets bent out of shape if you try to change his slot in the batting order?
Yes Bubba, that's a great point about the speed on a sinkerballer.
At the higher speed it still looks like a fastball until the batter can pick up the rotation, which, by then, it's pretty much too late to lay off and they end up beating the damn thing into the ground. With the slower guys, you pick up the spin much sooner and can adjust.
Junior is pretty picky about where he bats in the order--and, honestly, veteran guys really do earn that right. He squabbled some when he was moved to the 4-hole a couple of years ago but he also produced. So go figure.
The Reds' theory with Griffey has always been to get him to the plate in the first and hopefully jump-start a lead. Or, the 3-hole generally gets one more AB a game.
In that regard, it's not completely stupid that he bats third. But with the Reds' batting order issues nowadays they really need him to bat cleanup.
I think putting Dunn in the 6 hole hurts the offense, especially if he's batting behind Phillips (.324 OBP last year) and Griffey (.316). Peopel will REALLY be bitching about solo homers if that's the lineup. Plus, following him with Catcher, Shortstop, Pitcher just wastes all his walks (and leaves him being looking at fewer good pitches). It's probably moot in any even - Jr's not going to be playing any time soon.
When I think of struggling sinker-ballers, my mind goes to one name: Dan Graves.
I'm feeling you about Bellhorn - time to go.
Also agree about Santos - I saw him as the dark horse all winter, but he's been overshadowed by Saarloos (meh) and Belisle (cool) this spring.
I agree that Krivsky's done well to improve depth. Set aside "The Trade" and I'd grade him a solid B+, to date. Several nice moves balanced by a few silly, but mostly, low-impact flubs. Krivsky's and O'Brien's draftees (what's left of them) are also making the minor leagues look deeper than they have since the mid-80s.
Finally, Wang's a super-anomoly. His K-rates are so low that he shouldn't have any success. He might be legit, but he's not a valid comp for anyone.
His glove is in right.
His hand remains the center
of controversy.
Chris, the matter of all the lefties is far more of an issue than the OBP of a couple of guys in the middle of the order. It all comes down to what moves the opposing manager can make against the strongest part of your lineup at the most crucial parts of the game--usually late.
I saw Gene Michael at Spring Training--I see Gene Michael everywhere, it seems--and he's always good for great insider stuff. He doesn't think EE is ready for the cleanup slot and he really doesn't like Dunn there because he doesn't produce from the slot and he's not a clutch run-producer, period.
Besides, the gaggle of advance scouts I run into have a fairly common theory on Dunn--which is why everyone pretty much pitches him the same: He's pitchable. Griffey is not so easy. He still scares people.
So my theory behind Phillips in the 3-hole and Griffey at cleanup is Phillips is going to see pitches to hit.
EE batting behind Griffey might not offer the protection Dunn might--and, yeah, a valid point can be made about stacking Junior and Dunn at 4-5. But the reason I drafted the order I did is to break up the lefties and balance how pitchers must approach the hitters:
Phillips is going to hit fastballs, a healthy Griffey hits most everyone, EE gets clutch hits when they matter and Dunn is going to stand there looking at pitches whether he's got protection behind him or not.
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