Homer's 1st Redlegs Odyssey

RedsfaninVa wonders why I haven’t updated the blog in a while (simply, I forgot!), so there’s no better time for updatin’ than “The Day After” reflections on Homer Bailey’s major-league debut.

Odd as it may seem, I try to separate watching a sports event for recreation from watching one for work, but I was compelled to take notes and make observations—some of which were posted on C. Trent Rosecrans’ Cincy Post thread—during Bailey’s outing as if I were writing the sidebar.

In reading through the papers and a few blogs, the most common appraisals of Bailey were “poised,” “promising” and “legit.” We can probably all agree that Bailey was more nervous than he appeared, that he was worn down by the Indians making him throw so many pitches in the first two innings and being behind the count so often.

Still, it was nice he got the decision in his first game and all around it was a good building block for the Reds' phenom . . . and the organization. But here are some things I monitored during his five-inning stint:

1.) The Pitching Plan—I hated the plan that Jerry Narron and David Ross concocted for Bailey. Assuredly, as Bailey progresses he’ll have more say-so over his pitch selection. But the plan seemed ass-backwards. Here’s a kid with an electric fastball and they spent the first three innings trying to establish the breaking pitches, few of which Bailey actually threw for strikes or effectiveness.

If you’re sitting in the pitcher’s and catcher’s pre-game meeting, you figure the conversation goes something like this:

“The Indians know you have the fastball and they’ll be looking for it. So let’s get them thinking about the curve and changeup right away and then spinkle in the fastballs for effect.”

You can see the logic . . . kinda like Pickett's Charge. Looks great on paper; disastrous in application.

The pitching plan got Bailey behind on 14 of the 24 batters he faced, including five 3-2 counts, and in the end he needed his gas to get out of these jams. So enough with the piddling around. Go with the kid’s strength and pound the strike zone, establish the fastball and work off its merits. This plan has worked for a mere 100 years. See Johnson, Walter.

2.) Repertoire—We know he has the mid-90s fastball and certainly the ball seems to get on top of the plate a little quicker than hitters expect. He really doesn't look 6-4,probably because he's only around 185 pounds. Anyway, Bailey has a nice, fluid delivery and release point, the key to his repertoire being he pretty much has the same arm motion on his fastball and breaking pitches.

But we didn’t see much from his so-called "12-6" curve; the best one was actually a nice dipper into the dirt for a ball in the fourth inning. Ross kept asking for the curve to be higher and out of the zone, especially to left-handed batters—which was smart so nothing was left hanging. Otherwise, this start didn’t show much about Bailey’s curve, which is critical to his future success.

He tossed in a couple of sliders that didn’t have the sharp bend but he managed to record two outs, as I recall. His little cutter shows serious promise, however, as noted on a Travis Hafner groundout to end the third. Bailey really needs this pitch for getting the double play ball.

He also has the makings of a terrific changeup. Whether there’s Mario Soto influence here (or not), to me that changeup was his best pitch coming off his fastball. The change was routinely 12-13 mph off his fastball, which is a dang good knee-buckler.

3.) Command—We really can’t make much of his command—114 pitches, 63 strikes, 51 balls, getting ahead in the count on first pitch only 10 times in 24 batters. Nerves can be one cause, the pitching plan another. Whatever the reason, we can only expect him to find his own pace and pound the strike zone harder and earlier in the count during his upcoming starts. One interesting stat: five groundballs, six flyouts.

4.) Patterns—Moved the ball around the strike zone with ease, staying high out of the strike zone just enough (17 pitches) to keep batters honest. Chris Welsh noticed on the TV broadcast that Bailey was pushing the ball a little at one point.

Most impressively was how Bailey kept trying to work the ball low, with 12 pitches down for balls and another eight on the lower inner-outer part of the plate that could have been called strikes. If Bailey had been Maddux, Smoltz or Glavine, he would have gotten those calls.

5.) Mound Presence—Bailey certainly looked comfortable, especially out of the windup. It’s no big secret he needs to work on holding runners, like most young pitchers.

But I also saw something in a couple of photos in the papers today: a little three-quarters motion, which I’m guessing came on the few sliders he threw, especially to the lefthanders. This reminded me of Arroyo and how he became a good pitcher in Boston by watching and learning from Pedro Martinez. If Bailey picks up some up some mound presence from Arroyo—changing arm slots, mixing speeds, dabbling around the strike zone and then popping that fastball, Bailey can be a very special, electric pitcher.

Yet one start does not make a legend, and when batter word of mouth and scouting reports start circulating, the definition of Bailey’s upstart young career will be measured by how well he adjust to hitters, not vice-versa. No pitcher can live off fastball/curveball, though Nolan Ryan tried.

So the question today remains: Did we see enough from Bailey’s first start to warrant the hype, and hope?

Pretty much. But keep watching. Lumps are sure to come and one of the five points above might contain a forebearing.