Homer's 1st Redlegs Odyssey

RedsfaninVa wonders why I haven’t updated the blog in a while (simply, I forgot!), so there’s no better time for updatin’ than “The Day After” reflections on Homer Bailey’s major-league debut.

Odd as it may seem, I try to separate watching a sports event for recreation from watching one for work, but I was compelled to take notes and make observations—some of which were posted on C. Trent Rosecrans’ Cincy Post thread—during Bailey’s outing as if I were writing the sidebar.

In reading through the papers and a few blogs, the most common appraisals of Bailey were “poised,” “promising” and “legit.” We can probably all agree that Bailey was more nervous than he appeared, that he was worn down by the Indians making him throw so many pitches in the first two innings and being behind the count so often.

Still, it was nice he got the decision in his first game and all around it was a good building block for the Reds' phenom . . . and the organization. But here are some things I monitored during his five-inning stint:

1.) The Pitching Plan—I hated the plan that Jerry Narron and David Ross concocted for Bailey. Assuredly, as Bailey progresses he’ll have more say-so over his pitch selection. But the plan seemed ass-backwards. Here’s a kid with an electric fastball and they spent the first three innings trying to establish the breaking pitches, few of which Bailey actually threw for strikes or effectiveness.

If you’re sitting in the pitcher’s and catcher’s pre-game meeting, you figure the conversation goes something like this:

“The Indians know you have the fastball and they’ll be looking for it. So let’s get them thinking about the curve and changeup right away and then spinkle in the fastballs for effect.”

You can see the logic . . . kinda like Pickett's Charge. Looks great on paper; disastrous in application.

The pitching plan got Bailey behind on 14 of the 24 batters he faced, including five 3-2 counts, and in the end he needed his gas to get out of these jams. So enough with the piddling around. Go with the kid’s strength and pound the strike zone, establish the fastball and work off its merits. This plan has worked for a mere 100 years. See Johnson, Walter.

2.) Repertoire—We know he has the mid-90s fastball and certainly the ball seems to get on top of the plate a little quicker than hitters expect. He really doesn't look 6-4,probably because he's only around 185 pounds. Anyway, Bailey has a nice, fluid delivery and release point, the key to his repertoire being he pretty much has the same arm motion on his fastball and breaking pitches.

But we didn’t see much from his so-called "12-6" curve; the best one was actually a nice dipper into the dirt for a ball in the fourth inning. Ross kept asking for the curve to be higher and out of the zone, especially to left-handed batters—which was smart so nothing was left hanging. Otherwise, this start didn’t show much about Bailey’s curve, which is critical to his future success.

He tossed in a couple of sliders that didn’t have the sharp bend but he managed to record two outs, as I recall. His little cutter shows serious promise, however, as noted on a Travis Hafner groundout to end the third. Bailey really needs this pitch for getting the double play ball.

He also has the makings of a terrific changeup. Whether there’s Mario Soto influence here (or not), to me that changeup was his best pitch coming off his fastball. The change was routinely 12-13 mph off his fastball, which is a dang good knee-buckler.

3.) Command—We really can’t make much of his command—114 pitches, 63 strikes, 51 balls, getting ahead in the count on first pitch only 10 times in 24 batters. Nerves can be one cause, the pitching plan another. Whatever the reason, we can only expect him to find his own pace and pound the strike zone harder and earlier in the count during his upcoming starts. One interesting stat: five groundballs, six flyouts.

4.) Patterns—Moved the ball around the strike zone with ease, staying high out of the strike zone just enough (17 pitches) to keep batters honest. Chris Welsh noticed on the TV broadcast that Bailey was pushing the ball a little at one point.

Most impressively was how Bailey kept trying to work the ball low, with 12 pitches down for balls and another eight on the lower inner-outer part of the plate that could have been called strikes. If Bailey had been Maddux, Smoltz or Glavine, he would have gotten those calls.

5.) Mound Presence—Bailey certainly looked comfortable, especially out of the windup. It’s no big secret he needs to work on holding runners, like most young pitchers.

But I also saw something in a couple of photos in the papers today: a little three-quarters motion, which I’m guessing came on the few sliders he threw, especially to the lefthanders. This reminded me of Arroyo and how he became a good pitcher in Boston by watching and learning from Pedro Martinez. If Bailey picks up some up some mound presence from Arroyo—changing arm slots, mixing speeds, dabbling around the strike zone and then popping that fastball, Bailey can be a very special, electric pitcher.

Yet one start does not make a legend, and when batter word of mouth and scouting reports start circulating, the definition of Bailey’s upstart young career will be measured by how well he adjust to hitters, not vice-versa. No pitcher can live off fastball/curveball, though Nolan Ryan tried.

So the question today remains: Did we see enough from Bailey’s first start to warrant the hype, and hope?

Pretty much. But keep watching. Lumps are sure to come and one of the five points above might contain a forebearing.

The Rites of Spring Training: Loose Observations

Yeah, yeah, I promised you a look at the bullpen nearly a month ago but as things have played out—with so many non-contenders getting innings in the early games—I decided to wait a while longer to see some roster cuts. So, look for the bullpen analysis soon.

In the meantime, a few random observations not getting a lot of attention from the pack-rat mentality of the beat writers, who are now just as concerned about getting beat on their blogs as they are in print:

1. David Ross is not having a good spring. Normally you don’t worry about such from veterans. But given that he slumped so poorly the last two months of last year, played only 75 games for the season, and has no track of being a frontline starter or being as productive as he was the first four months, should the Reds be concerned about their catching situation?

2. Of all the yapping about Junior Griffey moving to right field, the bigger issue should be about his slot in the batting order. Why is it written in stone that he must bat in the 3-hole? Let’s see: first-ballot HOFer nearing 600 homers on one hand, team without a cleanup hitter on the other? Hmmm. Griffey in the 4-hole would also alleviate a problem of stacking the lefties in the middle and making the Reds prey to situational matchups late in the game. More on this subject in a later post.

3. The manager has used Brandon Phillips in the third slot of the order quite a bit this spring. He should stay there. I saw Phillips in the cage enough last year that he’s one of those guys whose impact on the ball makes you turn around. His outs are often hard and loud, and, with experience and fewer KOs, he has the makings of a good 3-hitter. Having Griffey behind him would get Phillips a lot of pitches to drive and, further, break up the monotony of all the lefties. My order: Freel, Hatteberg, Phillips, Griffey, Encarnacion, Dunn, Ross/Valentin, Gonzalez.

4a. Little, if nothing, has been written about batting coach Brook Jacoby changing EE’s stance and how it’s not working out thus far. Eddie apparently uses the stance in some at-bats and not in others. Most scouts believe he is going to be a major run producer and, frankly, until proven to be broke, why fiddle with his stance?

4b. I still don't know what Bucky Dent actually does but if he's not fixing EE's throwing issues then . . well, what f-ing good is he?

5. Out of the bullpen logjam comes the story of Rule 5 pick Jared Burton. Three weeks ago it was figured he had no shot at making the club. But he’s got some nasty stuff—that slider has some bite—and he doesn’t walk people nor does he give up homers. Obviously the Reds will have to keep him on the 25-man roster, offer him back to the A’s or work out a deal. But, approaching age 26, he’s another hard-throwing reliever (low 90s, heavy top) who might be of some help this year, or down the road. His spring performance is quietly forcing the Reds to keep him. He could be especially useful if Belisle continues to win the No. 5 slot in the rotation.

6. Kirk Saarloos got a lot of early ink and praise but he’s pitching himself into the bullpen and maybe even Lullville because of that ages-old problem of sinkerballers—fish that won’t bite. If you ever wondered why guys such as Jon Garland, Todd Jones and Paul Wilson can be so effective one day and so awful another, it’s because they are sinkerballers and hitters usually figure out very quickly in the game when the sinker is not a strike. The pitcher is then forced to throw something closer to the strike zone. And since most sinkerballers can’t hit 90 on the gun, these other pitches are fat and hittable. It would be one thing if Saarloos was behind in counts or walking batters. But he’s just getting hit. Period.

7. Mark Bellhorn keeps getting playing time and keeps making horrendous mistakes. Why? When the Reds did the right thing by cutting Ligtenberg and Meadows early so they can catch on with other teams, why not Bellhorn? He’s not making the club and this late in the spring he’s taking away at-bats from people the coaching staff really needs to see—namely Denorfia, Hopper and Gil. If the Reds feel they need an extra body for spring games, just pull someone from the minor league camp.

8. No one is talking about the Reds keeping three catchers anymore.

9. Victor Santos has been lights out but somehow he’s not mentioned as a top contender for the No. 5 slot in the rotation. He’s almost like the invisible man on the staff.

10. No one is bitching about Krivsky anymore. There’s more depth on the big league club and at Lullville in some time. Not a bad year’s work.

NEXT: The Bullpen (I promise—sorta)

The Rites of Spring Training: Infielders

The Reds' questions at spring training about a No. 5 starter, closer and third outfielder have overshadowed the peril that was the team's infield defense in 2006. Without significant improvement with the glove within the first 120 feet of the diamond, the Reds cannot--and will not--compete for the NL Central.

Correcting the core issue was Krivsky's major offseason move, signing shortstop Alex Gonzalez. Most fans went Saturn V on this deal because of the contract (3 years, $14M) and the Fantasy League mentality nowadays that shortstops ain't worth a hoo unless they hit 25 homers and drive in 110.

What Gonzalez brings is nearly 10 years' experience of steadiness in the field, gaining raves from his stops in Florida and Boston, and abroad. Said Reds legend Dave Concepcion: "The fans in Cincinnati are going to love Alex Gonzalez because this kid can really play, even better than me."

What worries Reds fans is the loss of offense the team suffered last year with "The Trade" and the fact Felipe Lopez is only 26 and still developing as an everyday player. But his defense was killing the pitching staff, which lost confidence in him and he sulked. Now, some scouts say Gonzalez has lost a step, plus he's a good candidate for 100 strikeouts.

Let this be clear: If Gonzalez makes the routine plays that Lopez could not, the pitching staff won't give a flip about that extra step.

So, barring injuries, the Reds will leave Sarasota with Scott Hatteberg and Jeff Conine splitting first base, Brandon Phillips at second base, Gonzalez at shortstop and Edwin Encarnacion at third.

The Reds got a whopping 25 errors by their shortstops in 2005 (14 by Lopez, 7 by Clayton) and 17 by their second basemen (16 by Phillips). Then, coupled with the 25 made by EE at third, it's clear why the Reds were 28th in total defense, 24th in double plays and 14th in unearned runs. Coupled with being 29th in homers allowed and 26th in hits allowed, how in the world did this team stay in the race as long as it did?

So, what we should like about the infield is the potential of Gonzalez and Phillips up the middle. Phillips' range is terrific and we saw him make so many dynamite plays. That most of his errors were on seemingly routine plays has the coaching staff gushing of Phillips being a potential Gold Glover.

Let's say the Reds cut those errors from shortstop and second from 41 to 25. How many runs does that save? How many games does that win? The guess: three more wins.

Now, look at EE. We see he has great hands. We also see he has troubled footwork. The notion of moving him to first is preposterous. He's only 24 and in his second full season as a starter. Mike Schmidt and Wade Boggs are recent reminders of porous third basemen who turned into Gold Glovers. So let's give Eddie more than 12 minutes in the big leagues before anyone starts screaming about moving him to first like Tony Perez . . . who wasn't moved until age 30.

If Eddie cuts his errors to 15, what will that mean in terms of wins? One, two, three games? But to me, the bigger issue with EE for now is One vs. Another. With the Reds' heaviness of lefthanders in the middle of the batting order (Hatteberg, Griffey and Dunn), Eddie will likely be needed as the cleanup guy for stretches. Will the offensive burden impact his defensive progress?

The platoon of Hatteberg and Conine doesn't excite too many people because of their age and lack of mobility. But we all know they are stopgaps for Joey Votto, who one columnist has pondered: What if Votto earns a job in spring training? Good question, but it won't matter. Votto is going to Louisville this year.

The utility roles go to Ryan Freel, if he isn't traded, and Juan Castro. We all know by now that Freel can't play everyday, and given his need in the outfield, his time in the infield will likely be spotty. But, mercy, he can flat out play third and he's a solid breather for Phillips at second for a few games.

Castro generated a lot of inflamed bloggers last year. Some were upset the Reds re-acquired him from Minnesota, claiming it was a Krivsky love affair with former Twins (ridiculous). Others couldn't understand the contract extension for a backup infielder who doesn't hit much (look closer). And then, when Gonzalez was signed, the world fell apart because many believed the Reds already had a no-hit, good-field shortstop in Castro who was a lot cheaper (contemplate).

Here's what Castro is: He's the best defensive utility infielder in the game and perfect for late-inning replacements/double-switches. Or, if there is an injury, he fills in aptly.

Here's what Casto is not: An everyday player. But in his role, as defined, he's terrific.

The other infielder is Jeff Keppinger, who came from the Royals in a minor offseason deal and has a penchant for putting the bat on the ball (only 13 strikeouts in 176 ABs) and carries a little pop (5 homers). Keppinger is viewed as mostly a pinch-hitter who can play all four infield positions, and even a corner outfield slot in an emergency.

Still, if Keppinger makes the squad it likely means two very important things: Freel's time in the infield might be limited so he can platoon in the outfield, and Josh Hamilton makes the squad as the primary lefty off the bench.

Otherwise, the Keppinger deal is one of those that costs a deserving and popular young player (Ray Olmedo) his spot in the organization and fans scratch their noggings wondering, "why?"

NEXT: The Bullpen

The Rites of Spring Training: Outfielders

While everyone is talking about the competition for No. 5 starter and the closer situation as the Reds start reporting to Sarasota, I find the outfield morass more interesting. There are all these plots (moving Griffey) and subplots (leadoff, batting order, platoons, righty or lefty?) while you can never rule out a spring trade, as Krivsky has proven adept. One thing is for sure: Finding that third outfielder has been a fruitless priority thus far.

The Reds have 9 1/2 outfielders in camp. Dewayne Wise is the only non-roster invitee and has little chance of making the club. He failed in his brief times with the Reds last year and he's competing with Josh Hamilton, Bubba Crosby and Chris Dickerson as left-handed pinch-hitters or spot starting.

Anyway, we all know the two big issues of the outfield: Will Griffey move to right field? And how will the right field or center field slot be replaced?

Look at the candidates: Ryan Freel, Chris Denorfia and Norris Hopper. Do those options make anyone feel that much better? By now we know Freel simply can't play 140 games because he wears himself loose. All the minor league geeks keep harping for Denorfia, based on his minors numbers, but big league teams don't hand a starting job to a minors guy without him earning it--usually through time as a backup with spot starts tossed in.

Personally, I liked Hopper--a lot--during his September call-up. He had a good winter season, too, and he can flat out hit, which segues to the overview of the outfield situation.

1.) The Third Party--For the most part, the third outfielder needs to be righthanded because the lineup is already littered with lefties--and lefties who fit into specific slots (Hatteberg at 2, 6 or 7; Griffey at 3; Dunn at 5-6. This is no small issue.

So who bats leadoff and who bats cleanup?

The guess here is that should the outfield roster remain the same (doubtful), Freel and Hopper or Denorfia get most of the starts at leadoff. The cleanup slot goes to Edwin Encarnacion to break up the lefties.

2.) No Joshing?--The Reds need to keep Hamilton for a year or lose him to the Devil Rays. Tampa Bay wants him back and a trade is going to be relatively costly. Narron has said Hamilton will play everyday in Florida, accumulating 80-100 ABs, so they can make an honest evaluation of his work in progress. If Hamilton's skills have eroded to the point he'll never recover, it's an easy decision. But if he shows he might be serviceable in 2-3 years, the Reds have to keep him on the 25-man this year and find a way to get him some playing time during the summer.

Many bloggers have said Krivsky will hide Hamilton on the DL so they can send him to the minors for rehab. Tampa Bay is having none of that. Besides, if Hamilton gets 100 ABs in spring training it'll be hard for the Reds to quantify an "injury" so they can shuffle Hamilton to the minors.

If Hamilton has a remotely decent spring, he sticks on the 25-man as the left-handed extra outfielder.

3.) Right of Center--A lot of fans are slobbering for the move of Griffey to right field. If Junior is healthy he might remain the best option in center field. Yeah, his range has declined, his arm has petered and he has to be replaced 40 games a year regardless. But the thinking here is Griffey in center is a better option than Griffey in right, where he has never played, where his arm will require two cutoff men, and a new position usually affects a veteran player at the plate.

On a side note, I thought Narron played Griffey and Dunn to death last year. Would each be more productive or healthier if they got 2-3 games off a month?

4.) The Conine Factor--Way too many of you look at Jeff Conine's age and size, and recoil in horror at the thought of him playing the outfield. As someone who has seen Conine live more than 250 games, rest assured he can play the corner slots. And he will play them some for the Reds, maybe as much as 25 games, and perhaps even some in the 4-hole of the order.

Yes, Conine's primary duties will be right-handed 1b and pinch-hitting. But he's got a lot of B.J. Surhoff in him: always in great shape, knows where to position himself, makes very few errors, runs great routes to balls, always makes the fundamental play. There's a reason why so many championship-caliber teams want him for the postseason, and you'll see why. This was a terrific signing.

In the long run, Conine, unwitting to most fans, will be one-half an outfielder and get around 300 ABs this year.

5.) Let's Make a Deal--The Reds have too many relievers (Cormier, Belisle, Shackelford) and Freel has some market. The signing of Jeff Keppinger seems piddly on the surface. But what that move indicates is Keppinger and Castro will now handle any backup infield duties, making Freel expendable for the right trade. Would you scream at a deal of Freel and Votto for the Rockies' Matt Holliday?

Next: The Infield

Reds Sign Herman Munster to 4-Year Deal

It was snowing Eskimos and malamutes in Cincinnati when the Reds announced they had signed Aaron Harang to a four-year, $36.5 million extension. The irony of the weather should not be lost on anyone because there was no shortage of baseball insiders (and fans) who believed Harang would go home to San Diego, where it was 65 degrees and partly cloudy today, when he became a free agent in 2009.

The signing brings to close a strange offseason for Harang, whose agents, the Levinson boys, submitted a remarkably low arbitration figure of $5.5 million for a pitcher who led the NL in wins, complete games and strikeouts. The Reds countered at $4.25 mil and most everyone thought, "huh?"

Cheap bastards . . . always on the cheap in Cincinnati.

You had to figure the Levinsons would come in higher by a million or so, especially after the ludicrous contracts given Gil Meche and Jason Marquis this offseason. But what this told the Reds was Harang wanted to stay in Cincinnati, that he was content with the raise from his $2.35 mil in 2005, and Krivsky absolutely had to get him penned for the long term while the mood was right.

The signing also quiets the Krivsky bashers--momentarily--who have been screaming for this deal and a few blockbusters this offseason. If you listened to the bloggers, Krivsky is the biggest idiot this side of Stan Laurel, but the finger-pointers still fail to recognize that Krivsky works quietly, behind the scenes, and with a certain diligence. Just because he's not quoted each week in the national baseball columns doesn't mean Krivsky's got his ass in a La-Z-Boy 24/7 eating Cheetos.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Undoubtedly, Reds fans are elated with this signing, fearing Harang would bolt. But I never understood this irrational emotion because, well, the Reds still held him for two years via arbitration. But hey, four's better than two, and five is better than four if Harang continues to grow and the mutual option is picked up in 2011.

The four-year average of the deal comes out to about $9.2 mil, which is a damn bargain for a No. 1 starter in today's market. But Chris at Redleg Nation made a great point when he said the average is really just under the $12 mil a year Harang will average in the final two years because he would likely achieve his new salaries ($4.25 mil in 2007, $6.75 mil in '08) via arbitration.

So now three questions arise:

1.) Is Harang really a No. 1 starter, the guy you can count on to beat the other team's No. 1 on a regular basis? Plus, by 2009 you figure Homer Bailey to be the No. 1 starter. Harang will be making some hefty change to be No. 2 or 3 in the rotation. But perhaps $12 mil a year for a No. 2 starter will be about right by then.

2.) Is Krivsky content with his starting seven (right field: wide open) or does he turn his attention to that glaring hole in the outfield and the middle of the batting order? Think right-handed bat. Big bat.

3.) Does anyone else think Harang looks like a young Fred Gwynne of Herman Munster fame?

You know, Gwynne without the monster makeup.

Or with it.

The Rites of Spring Training: Pitchers

It's been a long time since I posted and I apologize. It was a very busy work schedule from NFL training camp to the end of the first round of NFL playoffs. But I hope to make more regular posts this season, especially as interesting storylines develop.

So I start off with the first in a series of posts about the roster heading to Sarasota. This edition? Pitchers. The Reds have 55 players in camp, including 27 pitchers, 7 catchers and 288 infielders.

The 40-man roster pitchers are: Arroyo, Belisle, Bray, Jared Burton, Coffey, Cormier, Jon Coutlangus, Phil Dumatrait, Harang, Bobby Livingston, Lohse, Majewski, Calvin Medlock, Milton, EZ, Kirk Saarloos, Shackelford, Mike Stanton and Weathers.

The non-roster invitees are: Homer Bailey, Mike Gosling, Jason Kershner, Brian Meadows, Victor Santos, Tom Shearn, Paul Wilson and Mr. Ed.

Wait, I think Mr. Ed was an outfielder.

Anyway, the obvious question is whether the Reds keep three catchers and go a man short in the bullpen. I say no way and Moeller will end up released or in the minors as insurance against injury to Ross or Valentin.

So, for argument’s sake, let’s say 12 pitchers go north. The obvious are: Harang, Arroyo, Milton, Lohse, Coffey, Stanton and Weathers.

Some of you may say what about Cormier, Bray, Majewski, Belisle and a few others? I'm not convinced Krivsky is finished tinkering with the roster and there could be trades, releases, injuries and all sorts of goodies, such as Bray and Majewski starting the season in the minors. Not likely, but if they have a bad spring . . . .

Otherwise, competition is wide (Bailey?), some deals could be made (Cormier?), some will be released (Shackelford?), someone will pitch themselves back to the minors (EZ?) and there is usually a surprise (Santos?) or two (Livingston?) to make the staff out of spring training.

What do you think will happen with the remaining five slots on the pitching staff? Who will fail, who will get traded, who is the surprise?

Next Edition: The Outfield

The Lineup Quandary

Every baseball fan is a manager. Or so they believe. From platooning to All-Star selections to the designated hitter and almost any night in which some fantasy geek’s starter is splinter picking on the bench, fans always know more than the people paid to write out the lineup.

John McGraw was a grump. Casey Stengel a fool. Billy Martin a drunk. Davey Johnson a pompous ass. Dusty Baker was lucky.

We’ve heard it all.

Now, the Reds’ Jerry Narron, who has managed a team of flawed hitters and pitching-challenged nomads to playoff contention, is a moron.

How this is concertedly possible, considering the Reds’ place in the standings, is most everyone’s vivid guess. But the nightly lineups posted by “Naroon”—as one blogger calls him—is causing such mass indignation among fans that some are saying the Reds would have a five- or 10-game lead in the NL Central if not for Narron’s idiocy.

No joke.

Of course, the debate over the lineup is as old as the game itself. Each position in the order requires a certain skill, sometimes a selfless adaptability, to the game in progress--though the skills and responsibilities needed at each position in the order have not altered greatly over the past 50 years.

What has changed is the day of writing out a standard lineup with the same seven or eight starting position players. Reasons: free agency (constant player movement) and expansion (stretching rosters to the point of keeping young hopefuls better suited for Class AA). You understand the widespread issue of rosters and lineups in today’s game when the Yankees spend $200 million on payroll and still have positional holes.

To make peace and attempt to win games, the manager must combine sensitivity and respect with gentle authority when writing out his batting order. He has to bridge the issues of a player's salary, experience and ego, as well as running the game, playing the hot hand, working batter vs. pitcher matchups and enhancing player development.

Today’s manager is either lucky or a genius if he fields the same positional lineup 50 percent of the time. Most are using about 100-120 different lineups during a season. Platooning is more prevalent than at any time in history, and injuries, inconsistency and roster turnover are now regular hurdles. About 30 percent of a roster will change each year due to free agency.

And therein rests the greatest lineup quandary of managers—balancing the good of the team with the desires of the players. (Sorry fans, you don't count.)

Junior Griffey has struggled for almost two months and yet continues to bat third . . . and hit into the teeth of the “Ted Williams Shift" that most teams employ against him. But exceptions are most always granted to veteran players with career tracks. They get comfortable in a batting slot, know their role and the types of pitches they will see. They know what it takes to get the job done that day—no different than any layman worker who has done the same job for years.

"You have to remember that the game is played by human beings. Not mechanical men or robots," Tigers manager Jim Leyland once told me on this subject. He was undoubtedly talking about the rising number of armchair managers due to fantasy leagues.

And for Narron, fans are grousing daily about:

1.) Sitting 3b Edwin Encarnacion.
2.) Not moving potential Gold Glove 2b Brandon Phillips to shortstop now and shifting Rick Aurilia from third to second, thus returning Encarnacion to everyday status.
3.) Not moving Griffey out of 3-slot in the order.
4.) Not playing David Ross at catcher everyday.
5.) Not moving Ross higher in the order.
6.) Allowing Royce Clayton to live.
7.) Allowing Jason LaRue to live.
8.) Not moving Griffey to right field and shifting Ryan Freel to center.
9.) The musical chairs of the No. 2 slot.
10.) The lack of pop in the cleanup slot.

Like any lineup, there are usually counter arguments with some validity. But the Reds really don’t have much flexibility. Certainly not to the extent the fantasy geeks believe they do.

For one, the Reds severely weakened their offense with the trade of Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns to the Nationals. The offense was scoring one full run less in the first month after the trade to upgrade the bullpen. The team lacks right-handed power, a natural cleanup batter, and the strength in the No. 2 and No. 6 slots they had with Lopez and Kearns. Scott Hatteberg has always been the Reds’ best and most natural 2-hitter but who can argue with Adam Dunn’s productivity in that slot? Dunn has also proved to be ineffective at cleanup and spotty at No. 5.

While the preference is to have Griffey, at No. 3, getting a swing in the first inning and likely one more at-bat per game, he should be in the 5-hole until he proves otherwise. The problem? The Reds wouldn’t have a natural 3-hitter (Phillips has the potential) or 4-hitter. And the matter is complicated by the Reds’ best power sources, Griffey and Dunn, being left-handed, low-average hitters with high strikeout totals. They also have whopping vacancies in their consistency.

So each day Narron writes out a lineup based on the advance scouting reports of his opponent’s starting pitcher; who has a hot bat; who needs a breather; who might be nicked up and, most of all, instinct (which Narron likes to call “manager’s decision” when he gets testy on the subject of his lineups). That part of managing the order hasn’t changed over the years.

Hall of Famer Earl Weaver, who never met a conventional baseball wisdom he couldn’t rebut, once told me that what the fans, players and media thought about the manager’s lineup, “doesn't matter in the long run because the game is still all about winning ballgames. That's the bottom line."

As long as the Reds are in the playoff hunt, Earl has a point.

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